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Salem’s Economic and Housing Outlook (Slides)
Salem’s economy is booming and has great forward-looking demographics. Job growth in recent years is across all industries and is the strongest the region has seen in 25 years. However, like the rest...
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Willamette Valley Household Incomes (Graph of the Week)
This edition of the Graph of the Week highlights improving household incomes here in the Willamette Valley. While it was included in the Salem outlook slide deck posted the other day, it deserves to be...
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Oregon Metro Incomes
As our office continues to upack the latest Census data, we will share some of the findings here, and in our quarterly forecast presentations and documents. Today, a quick look at household incomes...
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Fun Friday: Guard the Northern Flank
Previously our office found that the Portland region continues to experience net in-migration among lower-income households. However that does not mean households are not responding to the changing...
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Working from Home
As an economist, I’m fascinated and intrigued by start-ups and entrepreneurship. In part because they’re so vital to productivity and economic growth. In part because they’re at or near historic lows....
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Regional Business Cycle Exposure, Pt 1
Right now the macroeconomic outlook is largely stable. The economy is slowing and is expected to continue to slow over the next year or two. As Tim Duy recently noted, this means we are likely to see...
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Middle-Wage Jobs Are Almost Back (2018 Job Polarization Update)
Job polarization is the academic term for when high-wage and low-wage jobs grow quickly while good-paying, family-wage jobs bear the brunt of recessions and don’t tend to come all the way back in...
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Urban Oregon Household Income, 2018 Update
This morning the Census Bureau released the 2018 American Community Survey data. There is a ton to unpack here and even more once the microdata is released later this year. In the coming months our...
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Maybe Fun Friday: Mid-Valley Commuters
This week I was part of a great real estate event here in Salem. I’ll write up much more on the Mid-Valley outlook in the next week or two. However, as I was putting it all together, something in the...
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Big Question #2: Capital and Long-Run Growth
One forecasting challenge is we do not know what the 11th or 12th year of an economic expansion looks like. We’ve never been here before. Our baseline forecast calls for ongoing, but slowing growth as...
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COVID-19 Regional Outlook
Last week our office released the latest economic and revenue forecast for the state. The outlook isn’t pretty as we face years of high unemployment and reduced revenues for public services. Included...
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Checking in on Oregon’s Regions, July 2020
This morning the Oregon Employment Department released county level data for July 2020. I thought it might be useful to take a quick look at how the initial stages of recovery are shaping up across the...
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The Urban-Rural Divide has Shrunk in 2020
Strong economies work wonders but they do not cure all ills. Disparities and inequities lessen during good economic times, but tend to widen during recessions. Our office is particularly focused on...
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Oregon Construction Outlook, Dec 2020
Typically, construction is a more volatile sector than the overall economy. It falls further in recessions, but bounces back stronger in expansion. New residential construction historically has been a...
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Priced Out Oregon Households
The housing market has been overheated during the pandemic. Between strong household finances and demographics, demand has outstripped supply. The result is both for rent vacancies and for sale...
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Thankful, 2022 Edition
It’s been a challenging couple of years. At the surface level, particularly for economic data most things are back to normal, even if there are clearly some lingering impacts on society and our daily...
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Oregon Homeownership Affordability, November 2022
Just a few charts for your Friday. Affordability is important because housing is a big part of household budgets, can impact migration trends, and construction activity that is part of broader...
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Oregon’s Regional Income Distributions
The impact of the pandemic and economic recovery to date on regional economies within Oregon is the exact opposite of the fallout from the Great Recession and expansion last decade. Back then it was...
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Oregon Progress and Poverty, 2022 Edition
The 2022 American Community Survey is our first real, post-pandemic look at the socio-economic characteristics of Oregonians. Last week we dug into the details of who moved away from Oregon. This week...
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